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Tyndall Manchester

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New paper published on how shipping demand might change in response to global climate change mitigation and adaptation

14 June 2019

The paper by Sarah Mander, Maria Sharmina, Kevin Anderson, Alice Larkin and colleagues at UCL presents four contrasting scenarios of global maritime trade out to 2050, including high and low levels of global CO2 mitigation and associated climate impacts.

However, the scenarios also show that trade can evolve very differently even in worlds with similar amounts of climate change. Such futures may entail the emergence of new, or contraction of established, markets, such as biomass and coal; and also changing centres of demand, as observed in containerised trade. 

The scenarios show larger amounts of world maritime trade in a 4°C future than in a 2°C future. In particular, higher temperature increases lead to a quadrupling of trade across containerised, dry, wet and energy commodities.

Read the full paper at the link below:

Photo by Cameron Venti on Unsplash.

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